Production costs have soared, operating rates have fallen, and manufacturers have collectively pushed up paper prices
　　"I received a price adjustment letter from Shanying International on the 10th, starting on the 11th to increase the price by 100 yuan per ton." Jinan Kanghui Paper Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Kanghui Paper") deputy general manager Zhang Qianqian told the Economic Herald reporter.
　　
　　 In fact, in addition to Shanying International’s price adjustment letter, before the Spring Festival, Kanghui Paper had received price increase letters from many companies.
　　
　　 Cotai Paper (China) Investment Co., Ltd. APP Industrial Paper South China District and Jiangsu Bohui both announced that the prices of white cards and copper cards will increase by 200 yuan/ton starting from January 7. Shandong Tianhe Paper Co., Ltd. announced that the original price of white double-sided offset printing paper and tissue paper will be increased by 100 yuan/ton from January 13 The upward adjustment is 200 yuan/ton. Yinhe Paper and Meiliyun announced that the price of cultural paper will be raised by RMB 100/ton starting from January 15. Asia Pacific Senbo (Guangdong) announced that starting from February 1st, it will raise the price of its offset paper and xerographic base paper products by 200 yuan/ton (including tax), and the price of all-brand copy paper and OEM brands will increase by 100 yuan/ton ( Including tax).
　　
　　 Regarding the reason for the paper mill's coordinated price increase, Chen Lijie, deputy general manager of Jinan Fenghui Paper Co., Ltd., said that the price increase of pulp raw materials has led to a sharp increase in production costs. The price increase by raw paper manufacturers is only the "peak period" of the cycle. In addition, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, March will enter the autumn textbook bidding season, and market prices will usher in an upward trend.
　　
　　 In Zhang Qianqian's view, in addition to the above reasons, the suspension of production by small paper mills is also one of the reasons for the increase in paper prices.
　　
Zhang Qianqian told the Economic Herald that Hangzhou Fuyang, known as China's "hometown of papermaking", is a microcosm. By 2020, the Fuyang area will shut down 115 more paper-making companies, "a group of small and medium-sized paper mills will be shut down or integrated and converted to production. , The operating rate of paper mills is low, the inventory is reduced, the supply is reduced, and the price of paper will naturally increase."
　　
"This year's waste paper import volume has also dropped sharply." Chen Lijie said, "Last year 17.055 million tons were imported, and 25.72 million tons were imported in 2017. Only 5.5271 million tons of 71 paper companies were approved this year. Foreign waste imports before the end of 2020 The amount will drop to 0. Once domestic waste paper cannot meet the demand, it will push up the price of finished paper." Chen Lijie said.
　　
　　Affected by rising costs, paper companies, packaging and printing companies have seen a decline in their profits in 2018
　　
　　 For paper mills, rising costs have brought down profits. Recently, major paper companies, packaging and printing companies have released performance forecasts one after another, and most of them expect 2018 earnings to decline.
　　
　　The leading paper company Nine Dragons issued a profit warning that it is expected to see a 45% drop in its earnings in the interim of 2018. Hexing Packaging lowered its performance expectations, and its profit fell to less than 277 million yuan.
　　
Bohui Paper’s 2018 performance reduction announcement shows that the company expects to achieve a net profit of 280 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2018, which will be 576 million yuan less than the same period of the previous year (statutory disclosure data). A year-on-year decrease of 67.29%.
　　
　　Jingxing Paper's performance forecast shows that the company expects that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for 2018 will be 330 million to 380 million yuan, a year-on-year change of -48.28% to -40.45%.
　　
　　After a year, the paper price will increase, but the increase is limited
　　
“The pre-pricing of paper mills during the Spring Festival is likely to be testing downstream demand. Whether it can be implemented is still uncertain.” Independent analyst Wang Kai analyzed, “Although the market peak season is approaching, terminal demand is still insufficient, the industry’s inventory is high, and new production capacity will increase. In this case, paper mills are under great pressure to raise prices."
　　
　　 "From a comprehensive point of view, paper prices may show an upward trend after the year, but the increase may be limited. The cultural paper market enters the off-season in demand in June and July, and it is not ruled out that the paper mills may give profits to their shipments." Wang Kai predicts.